2026.06.2514:00:00UTC+00Atlanta Fed GDPNow Gauge Softens to 2.5% for Q2 2026, Signaling Cooler U.S. Growth Momentum

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely watched GDPNow model now projects U.S. real GDP growth of 2.5% for the second quarter of 2026, down from a prior estimate of 3.0%. The updated reading, released on 25 June 2026, points to a modest cooling in economic momentum as the quarter progresses.

The shift from 3.0% to 2.5% suggests that incoming data for the second quarter have been slightly weaker than earlier in the period, prompting the model to trim its growth outlook. While still indicating solid expansion, the lower estimate may temper expectations for the strength of U.S. activity heading into the second half of the year.

Investors and policymakers often track the GDPNow series as a real-time barometer of the economy, as it updates frequently with new releases. The latest adjustment underscores how quickly the growth picture can change as fresh information on consumer spending, business investment, and trade flows feeds into the model.