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29.07.202013:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: World reaches peak in oil production

Long-term review
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Exchange Rates 29.07.2020 analysis

OPEC countries are going through difficult times. Daily oil consumption dropped by a third due to the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, a rise in popularity of electric vehicles and a switch to renewable energy sources have forced analysts to review the long-term forecasts of oil demand.

OPEC's authorities are expecting a possible collapse in demand this year. It will be more difficult to control supply as the era of oil comes to an end. There is a risk that oil consumption will never return to the previous levels.

According to some reports, OPEC countries doubt that their forecasts of further increase in fuel demand are true. This can be proved by the fact that the price of oil fell below $16 per barrel amid the coronavirus crisis.

Twelve years ago, OPEC countries rolled in money amid a rise in demand. Then oil cost more than $145 per barrel.

Now, in the case of a deep drop in the consumption of black gold, the group will have to learn to survive and to operate without conflicts. Besides, OPEC countries will be forced to cooperate with other oil-producing countries such as Russia to avoid a dramatic drop in income.

According to analysts, OPEC could find it difficult to work in the future due to the declining demand and production growth in non-OPEC countries. At the same time, one of OPEC's authorities said that the level of demand will not return to the pre-crisis level or it will take a lot of time.

According to OPEC forecasts, oil consumption was expected to rise to 101 million barrels per day in 2020 (while in 2019 fuel consumption was 99.7 million barrels per day).

However, global self-isolation has changed all OPEC's plans for this year. Many cities and countries have been closed that led to a long pause in flights and journeys. The group lowered its forecast for 2020 to 91 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, oil demand in 2021 is expected to be below the levels recorded in 2019.

The planet has reached a peak in oil production as OPEC is significantly cutting global demand predictions. It looks like oil-producing countries will have to learn to cope with a long-term drop in demand.

However, the Federal Reserve continues to stimulate the oil market and the US economy.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, hit its lowest level since June 2018.

Despite uncertainties over COVID-19, OPEC + countries will start gradually increasing production from August. Moreover, according to some reports, oil reserves are still in abundance. The volume of oil in storage is 3.4 times higher than in 2019. This is spreading panic in the market.

By the way, the price of September's futures for Brent crude rose by 0.39% to $43.58 per barrel. While futures for WTI crude oil dropped by 0.14% to trade at $41.54 per barrel.

Kate Smirnova
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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