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09.11.202112:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil market will be in surplus in Q1 next year

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Exchange Rates 09.11.2021 analysis

The United Arab Emirates said oil prices will be higher today if not for OPEC. Most likely, this is a hint that the group will continue to resist US pressure to ramp up production.

On Monday, during the Africa Oil Week conference in Dubai, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei referred to OPEC as happiness for all producing countries. This is because its decisions pushed Brent up by 62% this year, with the price hitting almost $ 84 a barrel.

Exchange Rates 09.11.2021 analysis

OPEC has been easing restrictions by 400,000 barrels a day each month. But now the US, India and Japan have requested the members to accelerate production growth.

Mazrouei said there is no need for it because the oil market is much quieter than the natural gas and coal markets. Gas prices in Europe and Asia have more than doubled this year due to severe power shortages. It led to a sharp rise in electricity prices and hit economies from China to India. Mazrouei said they are working together to stabilize the markets.

He added that OPEC should remain cautious because the oil market will be in surplus in the first quarter of next year. The main reason is the decrease in demand.

If production and supply adjustments are required and if the situation changes, members can reconvene in a matter of days.

Mazrouei said OPEC's decision last week was unanimous and no member was proposing to increase daily production by more than 400,000 barrels.

He blamed the rise in gas and coal prices on governments discouraging investment in fossil fuels and trying to transition to renewable energy too quickly.

The UAE has pledged to neutralize emissions by 2050, but will continue the multi-billion dollar project to increase its crude-production capacity to 5 million barrels a day.

Andrey Shevchenko
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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