30.08.202313:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: euro may surge despite obstacles

The euro could gain in the short term if inflation indicators in the eurozone surpass expectations. Inflation data from Spain and Germany suggests that the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for the eurozone, which is due on Thursday, might be positive. This could support expectations of further interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB).In Germany, inflation grew by 5.9% annually. This supports the idea that the ECB's tightening cycle might not end soon.In Spain, consumer prices rose by 2.6% in August compared to 2.3% in July, in line with analysts' expectations. However, the monthly figure of 0.5% surpassed July's 0.2%, exceeding estimates of 0.4%.As a result, markets raised the probability of a 25-basis-point rise in September to 60%. The short-term trend in the euro will depend largely on the inflation report for the eurozone on Thursday. Inflation is expected to be 5.1%, down from the earlier 5.3%.The crucial core inflation figure is anticipated to be 5.3%, compared to 5.5%. If these predictions come true, the euro could weaken as the data is likely to affect expectations of the ECB rate hike. However, judging by the data from Germany and Spain, an unexpected rise seems more likely. This, in turn, may boost the euro.

The euro may lose its upward momentum against the US dollar

The EUR/USD pair has dropped from its height near 1.0900 to around 1.0860, but this could change. Technically, there is minor resistance for the euro around 1.0930, and the possibility of an upward trend remains. Hence, the pair may face resistance before the upward trend continues.The Federal Reserve is expected to delay a rate hike decision until the end of the year, supporting a dovish approach. The ECB has not yet provided rate news after the summer season. The movement of the market is also influenced by the yields of US and German bonds.Currently, market participants are monitoring data and events that could affect the dynamic of the euro and the US dollar.

Regarding the technical aspect in the short term, it is important to note that the pair touched the target at 1.0880 and faced significant resistance there.

A downward movement towards 1.0785 is possible, though breaking through the resistance area at 1.0880 negates this scenario, sending the quote towards 1.0955.

Support is situated at 1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0690. Resistance is at 1.0915, 1.0960, 1.1020.

The US dollar maintains its position after a drop

After two sessions of losses, the US dollar index begins to show a reversal trend, though some loss of momentum in risk assets still persists. Events related to US yields and key data on the calendar are affecting investors' attention towards the US dollar.

Tuesday's decline in the greenback amid the published data is starting to give way, and investors may focus on US yields and upcoming key events. Thus, the expected data includes MBA mortgage application data, the ADP employment report, GDP figures, and some other reports.

Overall, the US dollar index is demonstrating a reversal and regaining positions after a pessimistic start to the week. The dollar dropped from the level of 104.50 (August 25) to 103.60 (August 29).

The greenback is supported by the robust US economic foundation, emphasizing the possibility of a tightening policy by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, there is an idea of potential challenges for the dollar in response to the Fed's data-dependent stance, considering the current deflation and labor market slowdown.

Key events this week include mortgage applications, employment changes, GDP growth rate data, trade balance, pending home sales, and other economic indicators. Debates on the economy's future, rate speculations, and geopolitical factors remain in the background.

A breakout of the 104.44 level in the dollar index opens the path to higher marks, including 105.88. The dollar will maintain its position, with support at levels 103.07 and 102.34.