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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen
The price test at 154.59 occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which clearly limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Considering how the pair have been reacting to US statistics lately, the focus in the second half of the day will likely be on them. Figures on the volume of building permits issued and the number of new foundations laid will be decisive in determining the pair's direction in the second half of the day. Strong indicators, even against the backdrop of record-high interest rates, will once again remind all market participants of the strength of the US economy, leading to further development of the upward trend in the pair. However, significantly weak data can undermine USD/JPY, especially from annual highs where trading is currently taking place. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.69 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 155.03 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.03, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's rise today will only be possible after strong reports from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.45 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.69 and 155.03.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 154.45 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.15, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of poor US figures. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.69 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.45 and 154.15.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes. And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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