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Trade analysis and trading tips for the European currency
The first price test at 1.0713 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair moved up more than 20 points. Good data from Germany and the eurozone aided this. GDP turned out to be higher than economists' forecasts, and inflation matched expectations, allowing the European Central Bank to choose the right course of monetary policy. However, the pair did not see significant growth, and there are objective reasons for this in the form of tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. Today, in the second half of the day, market movement may be affected by consumer confidence data and the Chicago PMI index, but they must significantly deviate from economists' expectations. Strong consumer confidence - I sell the euro and buy the dollar. Weak data - I act the opposite way. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0740 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to the level of 1.0782. At the point of 1.0782, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after weak US statistics, as there will be no other reasons to buy the euro. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0713 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. It is possible to expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0740 and 1.0782.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0713 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0670, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0740 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. It is possible to expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.0713 and 1.0670.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line - the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to guide yourself by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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