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Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the European currency
The price test of 1.0822 came when the MACD indicator started to decrease from zero, which allowed us to confirm the correct entry point for the sale of euros. However, it never came to the pair's fall, which resulted in fixing losses. Purchases at the price of 1.0833 occurred at the beginning of the MACD upward movement from zero. As a result, the pair grew by 15 points, which was the end. The data on the eurozone PMI indices helped the euro, and now all buyers hope for the same. However, there are already weak figures on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, the index of business activity in the services sector, and the composite index of the US PMI. In addition, there are also figures related to the labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be quite an interesting indicator, which may lead to a surge in volatility and data on the volume of housing sales in the primary market. Weak data is a reason to buy euros to continue the bull market development. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy euros when the price reaches 1.0855 (the green line on the chart) to grow to the level of 1.0883. At 1.0883, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. The euro's upward movement today is possible only after very weak data on the US PMI indices. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today for two consecutive price tests of 1.0835, when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 1.0855 and 1.0883.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I will sell euros after reaching the level of 1.0835 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0806 level. I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return after the release of good reports on the state of the American economy. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.0855, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0835 and 1.0806.
Chart Key:
Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
Thick green line – the anticipated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
Thick red line – the anticipated price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator – using overbought and oversold zones when entering the market is important.
Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:
Be very cautious when making market entry decisions. To avoid sudden price fluctuations, it's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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