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The test of the 1.0477 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair increased by more than 30 pips, narrowly missing the target level of 1.0515.
Recent weak economic data from the United States may pose a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve, whose officials intend to maintain high-interest rates for an extended period. Last week's retail sales data reinforced this concern. By keeping rates excessively high, the Fed risks hampering economic growth, a point increasingly noted by economists. Based on the dollar's performance, the market seems to anticipate this scenario.
Today, several reports from the Eurozone will be released. The day begins with the Eurozone trade balance and Italy's trade balance, followed by the Bundesbank's monthly report and the Eurogroup meeting. While each of these events is important for traders and investors, their impact may be limited, as the market is currently awaiting clearer signals from the European Central Bank regarding its monetary policy. Greater focus will be on the rhetoric of ECB officials and U.S. macroeconomic data, as these factors will shape global economic prospects.
However, the Bundesbank report may contain important details about the German economy and the Eurozone's economic engine. If the report indicates signs of slowing economic growth or rising inflationary pressure, this could pressure the euro.
The Eurogroup meeting, on the other hand, serves as a platform for discussing economic challenges and outlooks, though it rarely leads to immediate policy changes. Instead, it should be seen as an opportunity to gain additional insights into policymakers' priorities.
I will focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches 1.0507 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 1.0547. At 1.0547, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip move from the entry point. Expecting further euro growth in the first half of the day as part of the ongoing uptrend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0482 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth towards 1.0507 and 1.0547 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0482 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0449, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip move back. Selling pressure on the pair will return if U.S. economic data disappoints. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.0507 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline towards 1.0482 and 1.0449 is expected.
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