13.03.202505:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for March 13, 2025

Yesterday, U.S. inflation data indicated a slowdown in February, with core CPI at 2.8% year-over-year compared to 3.0% in January, which was also above the forecast of 2.9%. However, the markets were prepared for this news and barely reacted, as media reports suggest they are more concerned about the impacts of trade wars. As a result, the main focus now shifts to indicators for the current month. March data will start to come in after the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 19, and investors are eager to see if the Fed will take any precautionary measures, especially since this meeting is expected to be extended. In the meantime, market sentiment will be influenced by speculators.

The daily chart indicates that the euro's decline from 1.0949 to 1.0882 is merely a technical correction. The Marlin oscillator has pulled back from the lower overbought zone, suggesting that the price has enough space for a deeper correction, potentially down to 1.0667, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last upward movement. The price had risen too far from the MACD line due to emotional trading (by 5.5 figures). To confirm a move towards the first support level at 1.0762, the price must consolidate below 1.0882. Conversely, for the uptrend to continue, the price needs to break above 1.0949, as the 1.0882-1.0949 range serves as a consolidation zone.

The four-hour chart presents complications for both scenarios. A decline might only reach the MACD line around 1.0806, which coincides with the March 10 low. Additionally, it is possible that the price may reverse from the 1.0762 support level. In this case, a brief dip below the MACD line would be seen as a false signal, further reinforcing the uptrend.