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The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery for the second consecutive day after a recent decline, rebounding from a two-week low around 1.4260. Spot prices have climbed above the 1.4300 round level, but further upside remains limited as traders await the FOMC meeting.
Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged within the 4.25% - 4.50% range. Thus, investors will focus on the updated economic forecasts and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could provide clues regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy. This, in turn, will have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar's movement and, consequently, on USD/CAD.
The Canadian dollar's position is also noteworthy. The recent pullback in oil prices exerts some pressure on the loonie, which remains closely tied to commodity markets. However, the risk of further geopolitical escalations in the Middle East may limit the decline in oil prices, providing some support for the Canadian currency.
Additionally, an unexpected increase in Canada's annual inflation rate to 2.6% in February may deter traders from taking aggressive bearish positions against the Canadian dollar, which further limits USD/CAD's upside potential.
From a technical perspective, spot prices remain above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting caution before assuming the continuation of last week's decline. Moreover, mixed oscillators on the daily chart fail to fully confirm a bearish outlook, as they are gradually attempting to shift into positive territory.
The nearest resistance for USD/CAD is located at the 50-day SMA near 1.4350. If the pair successfully breaks above this level, it could potentially reach the 1.4400 round level.
On the other hand, support is found below the 1.4300 round level, near yesterday's low at 1.4260. Beyond that, the next key supports lie at the 100-day SMA and the 1.4200 psychological level.
Overall, the current market situation demands close monitoring of economic data and political developments.
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