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S&P500
The snapshot of the major US stock indices on Tuesday
* the Dow -0.8%,
* the NASDAQ -2.2%,
* the S&P 500 -1.6%, S&P 500 at 4,983 in a range of 4,800 to 5,700
As announced by Trump's administration yesterday, on April 8, new and even higher tariffs on Chinese goods will take effect in the US starting from April 9, reaching an enormous 104%. Essentially, this marks a tough trade war and a complete rupture in US-China trade, effectively a ban on imports from China.
Iran-US negotiations, mediated by Oman's foreign minister, are scheduled for April 12 in Oman. Conclusion: There will be no strike on Iran before April 13.
Trump on April 7: The US is now receiving $2 billion a day from new tariffs. This might be true considering that US imports are approximately $3.2 trillion annually. With a 10% tariff rate, that equals $320 billion—plus the elevated rates. This could work.
Conclusion: To all Trump critics, I want to say: If your country doesn't want to trade with the US under these tariffs—then don't. Imagine: you show up to sell tomatoes at a market in your town, and they tell you the fee for a stall is $10 a day. Don't like it? Well, don't sell at that market. It's voluntary. (For your reference, I'm not a supporter of Trump's tariffs.)
However, if Trump manages to collect $600-700 billion in tariffs over the year, this could cover, for example, interest payments on US national debt for the year.
Conclusion: The question of whether we are seeing a bearish trend or just a larger correction in the US market has not yet been decided. There are different scenarios. One possibility is that the US and China will somehow reach an agreement on tariffs and trade, leading to a sharp reduction in mutual tariffs, which could create a wave of optimism in the markets and significant growth. Another negative possibility is that no trade agreement between the US and China will be reached, leading to a decline in trade and a slight reduction in US GDP, and likely a stronger decline in China's GDP in this scenario. There is also a fork in the road: will inflation in the US rise significantly? If inflation doesn't rise, then in this scenario, the uptrend on Wall Street remains possible. For now, the future development is still an open question. Trump shows readiness for negotiations with China. China feels aggrieved since it's clear that Trump launched the trade war. The issue about negotiations between the US and China is also unclear. We are watching.
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