05.05.202517:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show resilience, climbing above the key psychological level of $3300. Geopolitical tensions stemming from the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict and escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy also influences investor sentiment, boosting demand for the precious metal.

While the market initially reacted to a more positive U.S. monthly employment report, that reaction quickly faded amid mounting economic uncertainty. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are also contributing to U.S. dollar weakness, further supporting gold prices. Nevertheless, gold bulls are proceeding cautiously ahead of the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting.

From a technical standpoint, gold has shown some stability below the $3200 mark and is performing well above the $3300 threshold. If the price breaks above $3330, it could test the $3350 supply zone. A successful breach of that zone would open the way toward the next resistance at $3370, with the potential to reach the round level of $3400.

On the other hand, if the price falls below the $3230 area, it may find support at the $3200 level. A decisive break below that would make the price vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the $3170 level, which currently aligns with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Further selling pressure could trigger renewed bearish momentum.

However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward. This is further supported by positive signals on the 4-hour chart as well.