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13.05.202504:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD Forecast for May 13, 2025

This information is provided to retail and professional clients as part of marketing communication. It does not contain and should not be construed as containing investment advice or investment recommendation or an offer or solicitation to engage in any transaction or strategy in financial instruments. Past performance is not a guarantee or prediction of future performance. Instant Trading EU Ltd. makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, or any loss arising from any investment based on analysis, forecast or other information provided by an employee of the Company or otherwise. Full disclaimer is available here.

The main event yesterday, which somewhat confused the markets, was the agreement between the U.S. and China to return to the mutual tariffs that were in place before April 2. This means tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to 30%, and on American goods from 125% to 10%. The agreement will be valid for 90 days. According to Trump, negotiations on structural issues are ongoing.

As a result, the S&P 500 rose by 3.26%, the dollar index gained 1.43%, and the euro fell by 136 pips without closing the gap.

Exchange Rates 13.05.2025 analysis

We are not rushing to conclusions and do not believe the euro will continue to fall to the nearest target support at 1.0955 unless the price consolidates below the MACD line on the daily chart. For that, today must close with a bearish candle. The stock market has risen strongly since April 22, while the euro has not embraced this risk sentiment yet. We believe the time has come. A breakout above the 1.1110/50 range would confirm a shift in sentiment toward the euro. The next target would open at 1.1276.

Exchange Rates 13.05.2025 analysis

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is rising ahead of the price, which signals further price growth. Currently, the price is pressing against the lower boundary of the target range, but it needs to break through the upper boundary.

Today's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May could stimulate risk appetite – the forecast is -4.4 vs. -18.5 in April.

Laurie Bailey
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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