19.05.202518:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Spot prices for the AUD/USD pair remain within the familiar range held over the past month, as traders await a fresh catalyst before committing to the next directional move. At the same time, macroeconomic data out of China presents a mixed picture, influencing market sentiment.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, retail sales in April rose by 5.1% year-over-year, missing the forecast of 5.5%. Industrial production increased by 6.1%, beating expectations of 5.5%, but slowed from the previous 7.7% gain. Fixed asset investment also fell short, rising by 4.0% year-over-year.

The immediate market response to this data was limited, as traders are focused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision due on Tuesday. The Australian central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and possibly halve borrowing costs again later this year, which could weigh on the Australian dollar. However, the recent de-escalation in the US-China trade war has tempered expectations for more aggressive monetary easing.

The RBA's policy outlook will likely determine the next leg of the AUD/USD pair's movement. With global risk sentiment still under pressure following the US government's credit rating downgrade, investor appetite for riskier assets remains subdued. On the other hand, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could support the Australian dollar, warranting caution for bears.

Technical Outlook: On the technical side, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, reinforcing the pair's bullish tone. The nearest resistance lies at the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), while support is seen at the key psychological level of 0.6400.