22.05.202512:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is retreating after reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This pullback lacks clear fundamental triggers and is likely to remain limited due to several supportive factors.

Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 continue to provide a favorable backdrop for gold. Additionally, rising concerns over the expanding U.S. budget deficit—driven by President Trump's tax reform plan—and weakening economic growth prospects amid U.S.–China trade tensions are also weighing on the U.S. dollar.

These developments, in turn, may support gold prices and contribute to the continuation of the upward trend.

To identify better trading opportunities today, focus should be placed on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data due later during the North American session.

From a technical perspective, gold is trying to establish itself above the key psychological level of $3300. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, favoring the bulls. A breakout above $3350 would pave the way for a move toward the $3400 level.

On the other hand, the $3300 level acts as immediate support. If broken, the pair could attract buyers near $3285, with additional demand possibly limited to $3255. A drop below that level could trigger further technical selling, pushing the precious metal down to the $3200 psychological level.