10.06.202511:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: No News Is Already Good News

Trade negotiations between the United States and China are set to continue for a second day, as both sides aim to ease tensions surrounding technology exports and rare earth elements.

Yesterday, representatives from both countries concluded their first day of talks in London after more than six hours of discussions. The delegations are expected to reconvene today, Tuesday.

"We're doing fine with China. It's not easy with China," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday. "I'm only getting good reports."

The U.S. delegation is led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, joined by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Following the talks, Bessent told reporters that it was a good meeting, and Lutnick called the discussions productive. The Chinese delegation was led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, who left without speaking to the media. He was accompanied by Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Deputy Minister Li Chenggang, the country's trade representative.

Experts note that Wang has been a key member of President Xi Jinping's entourage on international trips since his appointment in 2020, while Li is a seasoned negotiator who previously served as China's ambassador to the World Trade Organization.

Prior to Monday's meeting, the U.S. signaled its willingness to lift restrictions on the export of certain technologies in exchange for assurances that China would ease its limitations on rare earth exports—elements critical for a wide range of energy, defense, and tech products, including smartphones, fighter jets, and nuclear fuel rods. China currently accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth production.

This proposed exchange is seen as a delicate diplomatic maneuver in the ongoing tech standoff between the two superpowers. Washington, in urgent need of supply chain diversification, is struggling to find alternative sources of rare earths. In return, lifting tech export restrictions could encourage Chinese companies to enhance their domestic capabilities and reduce reliance on Western suppliers. However, executing such a deal is far from simple. First, the U.S. must be assured that China will follow through on easing rare earth export limits. Second, even if it does, this won't solve America's long-term dependency. Significant investment in domestic mining and processing capabilities is needed, along with building partnerships with other rare earth-rich nations.

Specifically, the Trump administration is reportedly willing to repeal a recent wave of restrictions on the export of chip design software, jet engine parts, chemicals, and nuclear materials. Many of these limitations were introduced in recent weeks amid growing U.S.–China tensions.

When asked about lifting the export bans, Trump sidestepped the question, telling reporters, "We'll see." He added, "China has been ripping off the United States for years," and reiterated, "We want to open China."

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

Buyers now need to push through the 1.1430 level to target a test of 1.1460. From there, a move toward 1.1490 becomes possible, though it would be difficult without the backing of major market players. The ultimate target stands at 1.1530. On the other hand, serious buyer activity is expected only around the 1.1400 level. If absent, it may be worth waiting for a retest of the 1.1361 low or considering long entries from the 1.1314 level.

GBP/USD Technical OutlookPound bulls must overcome immediate resistance at 1.3500 to aim for 1.3545—a level that will be tough to breach. The furthest target is 1.3580. Should the pair decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3473. If successful, breaking below this range would deal a major blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3450 low, with potential further downside to 1.3415.