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Iran responded to the U.S. with a strike on an American military base in Qatar, thereby demonstrating its resolve for retaliation and confrontation. Markets reacted in a rather peculiar yet rational manner. Let's try to break it down.
As the poet said, "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players." If we apply this idea to current global events, we could rephrase it as, "The whole world is a stage, and countries are the actors." Shakespeare's original quote effectively captures the nature of international relations over recent decades, particularly in the actions of U.S. authorities, who seem to operate within the framework of a never-ending performance. The uniqueness of American politics is that the government must continually achieve one "victory" after another. If it fails to do so, it risks being replaced by competitors who operate within the same restrictive environment of conventions, deception, and theatrical gestures.
After the United States—represented by its president—shed its mask of neutrality in the Middle East crisis and openly sided with Israel, it launched an airstrike on nuclear facilities in Iran. Trump reported another "victory" to voters, although there was no substantial evidence of serious damage. In response, Tehran launched a highly unusual missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, which was empty and suffered insignificant damage.
Given all this, one can confidently say that the entire episode was orchestrated. Neither the U.S. nor Iran appears to want a real war, which explains the theatrical nature of both sides' actions.
Considering the modern political landscape, where much is done for appearances, let's examine how the markets responded. And their reaction was painfully predictable. Market participants saw Tehran's retaliatory measures as the lesser of two evils. Iran's earlier threats to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. actions turned out to be hollow.
That's why crude oil prices plunged more than 7% on Monday, and the drop continues today by another 2+ %. Trump's statement on the need for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran only reinforces this bearish trend. Prices have already fallen below levels seen before the conflict began in mid-month.
Investors interpreted current Middle East developments as a precursor to negotiations and a transition to a low-intensity conflict. Israel has effectively run out of momentum for continued large-scale strikes, and Iran's capabilities are also limited. Amid hopes for a ceasefire, the U.S. dollar came under renewed pressure, and gold is showing a clear downward trend, reflecting decreased geopolitical tension.
This geopolitical "drama" has resulted in increased interest in equities. Stock indices around the world have moved higher. Although a potential ceasefire may not lead to any long-term resolution—given the stark differences in national interests—investors are trying to make the most of the opportunity to buy.
The Middle East crisis and the potential launch of negotiations will likely remain in the spotlight, which would positively affect demand for stocks and cryptocurrencies. In contrast, the dollar, gold, and crude oil will likely remain under pressure.
Gold prices are declining sharply amid expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East crisis. Given this news, it is highly likely that prices will fall to 3278.50. A potential sell level could be the 3370.42 mark.
Bitcoin is showing notable gains amid easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East and a weakening U.S. dollar. After overcoming the 105,746.00 level, it is likely to continue rising toward the upper boundary of the trend at 108,713.40. A potential buy level could be 106,089.25.
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