26.06.202512:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair has remained under pressure for the fourth consecutive day, falling back to levels last seen in 2011.

Bearish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar persists amid concerns over the future independence of the Federal Reserve, which is viewed as a key factor weighing on USD/CHF. U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for failing to cut interest rates, calling him "terrible." Trump also suggested considering candidates for the Fed's top position, raising the possibility of Powell's dismissal.

At the same time, traders are pricing in at least a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed before the end of this year, with about a 25% chance of a cut as early as July. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has signaled it does not plan further rate cuts, disappointing investors who had expected a return to negative rates this year. This divergence contributes to the weaker tone of the USD/CHF pair.

Meanwhile, optimism over a possible resolution to the conflict between Israel and Iran is supporting global risk sentiment. This reduces demand for safe-haven assets, which is preventing aggressive buying of the Swiss franc (CHF) and helping limit the pair's downside.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to U.S. macroeconomic data releases: Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and pending home sales. In addition, speeches from key FOMC members could support the dollar and provide momentum for USD/CHF. Looking ahead, focus will shift to Friday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. These key inflation figures will offer further insights into potential Fed rate moves and will be crucial in determining the future direction of the dollar and USD/CHF.

From a technical standpoint, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, the path of least resistance for the pair continues to be downward.