10.07.202509:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on July 10th: Fundamental Event Overview for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are expected to be significant. So what could traders focus on today? The second estimate of the German Consumer Price Index? Or U.S. jobless claims? Based on the current macroeconomic background, strong trend movements are not expected. However, it's important to remember that the currency market is often unpredictable. A strong move or the start of a new trend can happen at any moment, even without a clear macroeconomic trigger. Therefore, if solid trading signals appear, it may be worth acting on them.

Fundamental Event Review:

Among Thursday's fundamental events, speeches by Fed officials Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, and Alberto Musalem can be noted. However, the Fed's stance is as clear as the ECB's at this point: Powell and his team intend to wait—wait for the effects of Trump's tariffs, for inflation to rise, and for economic uncertainty to ease. Therefore, no rate cuts are expected in the near term.

The trade war remains the market's top concern, and there are still no signs of a resolution. The situation continues to escalate, as Trump has only managed to sign three trade agreements—one of which is highly questionable. Moreover, the market doesn't see much to be optimistic about, since all the tariffs imposed by Trump remain in place. This week, the U.S. president announced another round of tariff hikes for countries that aren't rushing to make deals with Washington (which includes nearly everyone), while also increasing duties on imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. As we can see, the situation is not improving over time. As such, we still see no compelling reasons for the dollar to strengthen.

:General Conclusions:

On the second-to-last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to trade sluggishly, as there are no significant events or publications scheduled. Technical corrections remain in progress, but they may end at any moment. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have formed descending trendlines, and a breakout above these would signal a return to upward movement.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal strength is based on how quickly the signal forms (a bounce or breakout). The faster it forms, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false trades are triggered at a specific level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During flat markets, pairs may produce many false signals—or none at all. At the first sign of a flat phase, it's best to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually afterward.
5. On the 1H chart, trade based on MACD signals only when there is sufficient volatility and a confirmed trend (using a trendline or trend channel).
6. If two levels are close (5–20 points apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Once the price moves 15–20 points in the correct direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the chart:

• Support and resistance levels – These levels act as targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set near them.
• Red lines – Trendlines or channels that indicate the current trend and preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line used as an additional source of trading signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can have a significant impact on currency pair movements. It is recommended to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sudden price reversals.

Beginner Reminder: Not every trade will be profitable. A clearly defined strategy and sound money management are key to long-term success in forex trading.