24.07.202512:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

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Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union are nearing a tariff agreement, are maintaining positive sentiment in the markets. However, these factors have been putting pressure on the safe-haven asset — gold — for the second consecutive day.

At the same time, the US dollar is attracting some buying interest and appears to have broken a three-day losing streak. This contributes to capital outflows from bullion and adds downward pressure on gold prices. Nevertheless, a strong dollar recovery remains unlikely under current conditions due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the future path of Fed rate cuts. Additionally, concerns about the independence of the US central bank could limit dollar strength and lend some support to the precious metal.

On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump stated that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. In addition, reports of progress in US-EU trade talks, with potential returns of 15%, are boosting investor confidence and continuing to weigh on gold as a safe-haven for a second day.

Markets do not expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in July, despite Trump's ongoing pressure to reduce borrowing costs. Moreover, Trump has personally criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining current interest rate levels and has repeatedly called for his resignation.

Furthermore, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, both appointed by Trump, have supported a rate cut at the upcoming July 30 policy meeting. These comments are keeping the dollar suppressed, thereby offering some support to gold.

Today, traders should monitor the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which will provide new insight into the global economic outlook and influence demand for precious metals. In addition, the European Central Bank's key policy decision may trigger market volatility and impact the XAU/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that gold prices may find support in the $3358–3360 zone. A convincing break below this level would open the way toward $3335, where the 50-day SMA lies. This level would become a critical support; a decisive drop below it would shift the bias in favor of the bears.

On the other hand, momentum above the key $3400 level could face resistance at $3438–3440, which aligns with the July high. A breakout above this zone would accelerate the bullish momentum toward the all-time high near the psychological level of $3500, last seen in April.

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