28.07.202506:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on July 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Thus, unless Donald Trump makes some new high-profile statements or decisions, traders may face low volatility and a flat market on Monday. This conclusion applies more to the euro than to the British pound, as the pound has shown relatively strong downward movement over the past two days.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

As for Monday's fundamental events, once again, there is absolutely nothing noteworthy. As we have mentioned before, the monetary policy of any central bank currently has little importance—firstly, because only the dollar is primarily declining, and secondly, because the stance of central banks is already fully transparent and understood by traders. No sharp shifts in sentiment or regulatory plans are expected, so any speeches by central bank representatives are of little interest.

The number one concern for the market remains the trade war, and we still see no signs of it coming to an end. Some may believe that trade deals are indeed being signed, but we would point out that although deals may be signed, the conditions for further cooperation between the U.S. and its trading partners under these agreements are becoming worse than before.

This issue may remain central to the dollar for quite some time. The situation remains complicated, as Trump has managed to conclude only four trade deals over more than four months of negotiations—one of which is highly questionable. In the last three weeks, the U.S. president has decided once again to raise tariffs on countries unwilling to make deals with Washington, while also increasing import duties on copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. In addition, he has warned that virtually all countries in the world will have to pay tariffs into the U.S. budget. Frankly, we do not understand where the "de-escalation" of the trade war is here.

Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in a sideways manner. No significant events are scheduled for the day, so expecting strong moves would likely be unrealistic. Trading should be based exclusively on technical levels. The British pound currently has a strong support zone at 1.3413–1.3421, while the euro has a solid area at 1.1740–1.1745.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.