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Donald Trump has dismissed the Director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica McEntarfer. If it were up to him, he would have fired Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell long ago as well. The reason for McEntarfer's dismissal was the downward revision of the Nonfarm Payrolls reports for May and June by more than 100,000 jobs. Initially, the labor market data was quite positive, exceeding market expectations and allowing for an optimistic outlook, but it ultimately turned out to be a failure, indicating a strong "cooling." Of course, McEntarfer is not to blame for the decline in the labor market. Trump is. Whether directly or indirectly doesn't matter. It was his trade war that effectively brought job creation in the U.S. to a halt. However, Trump cannot admit that his policies led the labor market to stagnate near the zero line. And so, the innocent McEntarfer became the scapegoat.
Numerous politicians, analysts, and concerned citizens immediately criticized the president's latest controversial decision. The main reason for the criticism is that revising previous months' figures is a completely standard practice. Some companies simply don't submit reports on time, while others revise their numbers independently. As a result, the Bureau of Labor Statistics usually operates with incomplete and imprecise data at the time of publication. This is not the Bureau's fault. Nonetheless, Trump accused McEntarfer of falsification—although what exactly she falsified remains unclear.
Let me remind you that Trump previously accused Jerome Powell of manipulation and claimed the entire world treats America unfairly, as reflected in the imbalanced trade relationships. In my opinion, Trump merely uses any high-profile occasion to justify or legitimize a controversial decision. Based on this, it becomes evident that any official can be accused of manipulation, falsification, or a lack of patriotism at any time—if they refuse to follow Trump's orders or damage his reputation through their actions. Democracy and freedom of speech are no longer synonymous with the United States.
In my view, confidence in the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in light of these events. The fact that demand for the dollar barely dropped on Monday means little. The ISM index, due on Tuesday, may trigger a new wave of dollar selling, and the wave structure suggests a new bullish wave is forming for both instruments.
Based on the conducted analysis, I conclude that EUR/USD continues to build a bullish wave segment. The wave count remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets for this bullish segment could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions targeting around 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci level) and beyond. Presumably, wave 4 has been completed, making this a good time to buy.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument remains unchanged. We are observing a bullish, impulsive wave segment. Under Trump, the markets may experience many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly affect the wave structure, but for now, the main scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish wave segment are now around the 1.4017 mark. At this point, I assume that the corrective wave 4 has concluded. Therefore, I expect the bullish wave cycle to resume and am considering long positions.
Core Principles of My Analysis:
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