12.08.202512:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

From a technical standpoint, gold is managing to hold above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which serves as a key support level. Given that oscillators on the same chart are in negative territory, a decisive break below this level would open the way for gold to reach interim support at 3315 dollars, followed by the key psychological level of 3300 dollars. Further selling from there could serve as a new trigger for bears, paving the way for additional short-term price declines.

On the other hand, any price increase above 3358, or the 100-period SMA, would face strong resistance around 3380. A sustained move above this area would allow the precious metal to make another attempt to test the key 3400-level. Buying above last week's high, in the 3409–3410 level, would negate the negative outlook, pushing prices toward the next major barrier around 3420–3422. The upward momentum could then extend toward the 3434–3435 level. If this zone is decisively breached, the historical high at the psychological level of 3500, reached in April, would come into view.