14.08.202508:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The breakout above the $3358 level, where the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is located, against the backdrop of the earlier confirmed hold above the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart earlier this week, favors the bulls.

The Asian session high near $3375 is the immediate resistance. A move above this level would set the stage for gold to target a recovery toward the key $3400 round figure. Beyond that, last week's swing high in the $3409–3410 level comes into view. A break above this level would open the way toward the intermediate barrier at $3420.

Further momentum could push the price higher toward the $3434–3435 level, with an eye on the psychological $3500 level or the all-time high reached in April.

On the other hand, a drop back below the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart would find initial support near the weekly low at $3330. Additional selling could leave the precious metal vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the $3300 round figure. A decisive break below this level would shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears, paving the way for further price weakness.

However, oscillators on the daily chart are struggling to build positive momentum, so it would be prudent to wait for continued buying interest before positioning for further upside.