05.09.202510:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: UK retail sales cause confusion

This shortfall of 0.6 percentage points over the past six months casts doubt on the optimistic forecasts that had predicted a quick recovery in consumer demand after a period of economic uncertainty. Analysts link the slowdown to several factors, including persistent inflation despite the Bank of England's efforts to contain it, as well as increased consumer caution amid an unstable geopolitical environment.

In the face of these challenges, the UK government will likely be forced to review its economic policy and introduce additional measures to support the retail sector. Particular attention should be given to stimulating domestic demand, reducing the administrative burden on small and medium-sized businesses, and creating favorable conditions for investment and innovation in retail.

The downward revision of the data worsens the crisis of confidence in the accuracy of official economic figures, with the UK's already embattled statistics agency facing criticism. A series of problems has already affected labor market, price, GDP, and retail sales data, making it difficult for Bank of England policymakers and government ministers to assess the state of the UK economy. Experts note that the new figures threaten to change the perception that UK consumers had begun emerging from the period of extreme caution that had been restraining economic growth.

According to the ONS, the revision of retail sales data had only a minor effect on first-quarter GDP, effectively leaving growth unchanged at 0.7%, although a fairly strong GDP report had earlier been published, partly relying on these figures. However, the changes are not expected to affect future GDP estimates for July. Retail sales contribute around 4.8% to GDP.

As a result, the reaction in the currency market was fairly mixed. The strong monthly report was offset by the downward revision of half-year figures, preventing the pound from significantly strengthening its position against the dollar.

Current technical picture for GBP/USD: Pound buyers need to break the nearest resistance at 1.3445. Only this will allow a move toward 1.3485, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3515 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3415. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to 1.3380, with the prospect of reaching 1.3340.