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On Saturday, the 40th day of the "shutdown" in the United States began. Remember that it all started with discussions about ending the "shutdown" within two weeks. Now, the "shutdown" has set a new record for duration, surpassing the previous one (also under Donald Trump) that lasted 35 days in 2019. One could overlook this new record if the Democrats and Republicans were at least approaching an agreement. However, this time they are not even striving to negotiate.
As I have written previously, the current "shutdown" is unlike any before it. Donald Trump began his second presidential term by violating a significant number of laws (thus regularly facing legal challenges) and immediately made it clear to the U.S. Congress that he does not feel the need for it. It should be noted that Republicans control both chambers of Congress, so the outcome of votes on Trump's initiatives is largely predetermined. However, in some cases, Trump did not even hold votes and simply made decisions, signing the corresponding order.
Thus, the budget bill for government spending (in simple terms, the budget for the next fiscal year) became the first real opportunity for Democrats to push their ideas forward. The Democratic Party opposes cuts to the Medicaid program and demands an extension of tax incentives for health insurance. Recall that several months ago, Trump passed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," which, among other things, involves significant cuts to social and medical programs for low-income and vulnerable populations.
As a result, the Democrats are simply blocking the funding bill, knowing that without their approval, Trump cannot pass it. To approve the bill, more than just 50 votes in the Senate are required (which Republicans could easily secure); 60 votes are needed. This is where the snag lies. Democrats understand that this is their only chance to remind the American public of their existence. Therefore, it is highly likely they are blocking it—and will continue to do so on principle.
However, Trump and his party are unwilling to concede on this issue. On the contrary, Trump insists that funding must be unblocked and the "shutdown" ended before any negotiations can begin. But it is clear to the Democrats, as day follows night, that once the funding bill is passed, they will lose leverage over the U.S. president. Thus, the "shutdown" continues.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may reach the 25 figure. At this time, the corrective wave 4 is being constructed, taking on a highly complex, elongated shape. Its latest internal structure a-b-c-d-e, is near completion or has already been completed. Therefore, I am once again considering purchases, as all recent downward structures appear corrective.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave shape, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c of 4 is presumably nearing completion. I expect the main wave structure to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.
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