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The price test at 1.1711 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros. The second test at 1.1711 triggered Scenario No. 2 to buy, as the MACD was already in the oversold area, resulting in a rise of more than 20 pips in the pair.
After dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate dynamics, the dollar lost its morning momentum. However, the American economy, despite some weakening, remains more stable than those of many developed nations. The ongoing problem is unemployment, which has been rising lately, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Today, the European Central Bank's decision on the main interest rate is expected in the first half of the day. This decision is already priced in, so it is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the markets. Intriguingly, the focus will be on Christine Lagarde's press conference. Investors are eager to hear signals about the central bank's future strategy regarding inflation and potential timelines for easing monetary policy—if such plans exist. Attention will also be given to comments regarding the outlook for the European economy. Recent data indicate an increase in growth rates, and the ECB is likely to revise its forecasts for the coming year positively.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros when it reaches the entry point around 1.1751 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1776 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.1776, I plan to exit the market and sell in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from this level. Strong euro growth can only be anticipated following a solid report. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1737 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposite levels of 1.1751 and 1.1776 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1737 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1716, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from this level. Selling pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1751 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1737 and 1.1716 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to remain on the sidelines before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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