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The price test at 1.1782 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.
Yesterday's news that the U.S. economy posted the most significant growth in the last two years triggered a rise in the dollar's exchange rate. This rise was supported by stable consumer spending. The published data showed that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.3% year over year. The main part of economic activity in the U.S., namely consumer spending, rose significantly due to declining inflation, indicating sustained confidence among American consumers. The GDP increase was also supported by rising government spending and export operations.
Today's lull in European reports does not preclude the continuation of the upward trend for EUR/USD. The absence of macroeconomic releases does not halt market activity. Likely, market participants will focus on the overall market environment, geopolitics, and news.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching a price around 1.1809 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.1855. At the point of 1.1855, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be achieved after good news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price 1.1785 is tested twice, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1809 and 1.1855.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1750, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some downward pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price 1.1809 is tested twice consecutively, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1785 and 1.1750.
Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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