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The test of the price at 156.31 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test of the price at 156.13 led to the realization of Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but it did not yield significant gains.
Yesterday's remarks by Trump directed at Powell did not destabilize the situation in the currency market. This is likely because the legal aspects of the potential dismissal remain ambiguous, and market participants assess the likelihood of actual implementation as minimal. Investors likely also took into account that, despite the pressure from authorities, the Federal Reserve retains a degree of autonomy enshrined in legislation. While any attempts at political influence on central bank activities could provoke negative reactions not only from market players but also from the public, this did not happen yesterday.
Given the lack of key data from Japan and the US, it is likely the pair will remain within the channel it has been in since the middle of last week until the end of the year.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.12 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.38 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.37, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.95 twice, during which the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.12 and 156.38.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 155.95 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.72 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.12 twice in a row, during which the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.95 and 155.72.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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