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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday. As we mentioned, no local reports or news are currently needed for the euro to rise. The pair has emerged from the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830, where it spent seven months, signaling the start of a new trend. Or perhaps the old trend is continuing. Donald Trump has done everything this new year to resume the dollar's decline, openly stating yesterday that he does not care about the currency's depreciation. This has prompted a further drop. Thus, yesterday the pair was within reach of the 21 level, and this is far from its peak. Let's remember that 2026 has just begun, and there have already been enough events to fill an entire year, each with a negative impact on the US currency.
There were virtually no macroeconomic events on Tuesday, and none influenced the pair's movement. Christine Lagarde's speech also failed to spur new growth in the euro.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed on Tuesday. First, the pair broke through the level of 1.1908, then the area of 1.1970-1.1988, after which it worked through the area of 1.2044-1.2056, where the upward movement ended. Over the course of the day, the European currency appreciated by 160 pips. A long position from the level of 1.1908 could have yielded beginner traders a profit of 120 pips.
On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend continues to form. On Monday night, the price settled above the area of 1.1800-1.1830 and above the broader range of 1.1400-1.1830, meaning that the flat, which lasted for 7 months, can be considered over. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar, so we fully support the further growth of the European currency.
On Wednesday, novice traders can open new long positions on a rebound from the 1.1970-1.1988 area, targeting 1.2044-1.2056 and 1.2092. A price consolidation below the 1.1970-1.1988 area will allow for short positions targeting 1.1908.
On the 5-minute timeframe, key levels to consider are: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988, 1.2044-1.2056, and 1.2092-1.2104.
Today, the results of the Fed meeting will be announced in the US, which are unlikely to significantly impact market sentiment. We believe the US dollar will continue to decline regardless of the outcome. Certainly, not every day, but it will.
Support and resistance price levels — levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit can be placed near them.
Red lines — channels or trendlines that reflect the current tendency and show which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can strongly affect a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution, or positions should be closed, to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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