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The test of the 152.89 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test at 152.89 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing the implementation of Scenario #2 to sell the dollar. However, a loss was booked on the trade, as the pair did not decline as anticipated.
Yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 3.75% supported the dollar against the Japanese yen, which had been actively bought in recent days amid the threat of currency intervention by the Bank of Japan. Given that traders did not hear anything new from Fed Chairman Powell, the selling of yen and profit-taking were a natural result. However, it's essential not to assume that growth will continue, as there are currently no significant reasons to strengthen USD/JPY. While the risk of intervention in the yen's value persists with US support, it is unlikely that we will see active buyers of the dollar against the yen. Trading will predominantly take place within a sideways channel, with a high probability of further decline in the pair.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 153.23 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 153.87 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.87, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 152.90 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 153.23 and 153.87.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 152.90 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.25 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also intend to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.23 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 152.90 and 152.25.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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