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Bitcoin has slumped more than 50% since October of last year and overall shows no signs that the decline is over. No bullish patterns have been detected, there are no signs of breaking the downward structure, and none is expected in the near future. As we've said, the crypto community is currently split into two camps: those who actually trade and analyze, and those who constantly forecast rallies. Briefly, traders vs. investors.
Traders are supporting a further bearish sequence because (again) there are no technical grounds for an upturn at the moment. Meanwhile, large institutions, funds, and banks continue to predict that Bitcoin will set a new record in 2026. For example, analysts at Bernstein said Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 by year?end. They justify this forecast by calling the current "bear" trend merely a correction, and they say this correction is the weakest in Bitcoin's history. Gautam Chugani, head of Bernstein's research team, remarked that the recent Bitcoin drop was caused by a fall in market confidence in the leading crypto. He pointed out that none of the classic catalysts for past crashes are present now.
Bernstein's $150,000 view is based on a crypto?friendly policy under Donald Trump, rising demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and strong institutional backing. We don't object to that scenario, but we still believe technical analysis should give signals before a new trend can begin. At the moment, there are no such signals.
Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a fall toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. On the daily TF, POI sell areas include the latest bearish FVG, which is still far above current price. The decline could resume even without hitting the nearest POI.
On the daily TF, the downtrend continues to build. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and long?lasting. Since that pattern formed, Ethereum has already dropped about 55% (roughly $2,500). A short?term corrective bounce may be expected. Local upside moves can be traded via bullish patterns on the 4?hour TF, but we would not recommend long positions in a strong downtrend. At present there is hardly even a correction — what we've seen in recent days is a buyback. In the medium term, we expect the daily bearish patterns to play out and for the downtrend to resume.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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