10.02.202609:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: President Donald Trump expects 15% US economic growth

President Donald Trump said his chosen candidate to lead the Federal Reserve could boost US economic growth by 15%, an exceptionally optimistic claim that nonetheless highlights the pressure Kevin Warsh would face if confirmed.

In an interview, Mr. Trump said Warsh was his second choice in the last search and suggested that appointing Jerome Powell as chair in his first term had been a mistake. "If Mr. Warsh does the job that he's capable of, then we can grow ... I think he is going to be great, and he's a really high-quality person," Mr. Trump said.

It was not clear whether Mr. Trump meant 15% annual growth or another measure. US GDP is expected to expand about 2.4% this year and has averaged roughly 2.8% annually over the past five decades. Growth above 15% has occurred only a few times since the 1950s, notably in the third quarter of 2020, when output rebounded sharply as the economy reopened after pandemic lockdowns.

That 2020 episode—a 33.8% quarter-on-quarter annualized surge in Q3, the largest since the Great Depression—remains emblematic of recoveries driven by the rapid reinstitution of economic activity. Yet beneath such headline numbers lie persistent challenges: inflation, supply-chain pressures, and geopolitical risks. Sustained growth near 15% would likely reignite inflationary pressures and run up against constraints in global trade and monetary policy.

Mr. Trump's remarks read as a call for an era of exceptional expansion, but achieving such a result would require confronting global economic realities and navigating Federal Reserve policy—its interest rates and balance-sheet stance—which are central to supporting or restraining growth. For Kevin Warsh, should he be confirmed, the task would be fraught: policy choices to stimulate growth at such a pace would carry substantial risks, including higher inflation.

The comments also underline the political backdrop: Mr. Trump appears to be banking on a fiscal and monetary boost ahead of the midterm elections, a period when presidents typically seek stronger economic momentum.

However, Warsh's confirmation in the Senate could be delayed after Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring Republican from North Carolina, vowed to block any Fed nomination until the Justice Department's investigation into Powell and the Fed headquarters renovation project is resolved.

Separately, the December median projections published in the Fed's forecasts implied only one rate cut in 2026, while market investors still price roughly two cuts this year.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider reclaiming 1.1925. That would open the way to test 1.1957. From there, a move to 1.1994 is possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players would be difficult. The extended target is 1.2037. On a decline, meaningful buying interest is likely near 1.1890. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1858 or to open long positions from 1.1832.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should capture the nearest resistance at 1.3698. Only that will allow them to target 1.3730, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3757. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control at 1.3660. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3625 with scope to extend to 1.3585.