12.02.202609:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Rates need to be cut

In a recent speech, Federal Reserve official Steven Miran argued that the encouraging January labor market data should not be a reason to forgo further interest rate cuts.

He said that an expected moderation of inflation in the housing sector, combined with planned reforms, creates favorable conditions for deeper reductions in the policy rate. Since taking office in September, Miran has consistently advocated for more aggressive easing than many of his colleagues supported at monetary policy meetings.

Miran said that he favored cutting interest rates for many reasons and that, while the employment data were encouraging for the economy, he believed rising supply still gave room for a more accommodative monetary stance.

He acknowledged that the strong job gains and the decline in the unemployment rate in January are positive signs. However, Miran stressed those indicators should not be treated as a conclusive signal for setting the future monetary path. He pointed to persistent economic uncertainty and said the Fed would scrutinize incoming data carefully before making major decisions.

Wednesday's statistics showed 130,000 jobs added in January and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The figures eased concerns about rising joblessness, a factor that had contributed to three rate cuts at the end of 2025, as Chair Jerome Powell noted at a recent press conference. As a result, traders have revised down the probability of a rate cut at the June Fed meeting—previously the most widely expected timing—to below 50%.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider reclaiming 1.1890. That would open the way to test 1.1925. From there, a push to 1.1957 is possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players would be difficult. The extended target is 1.1994. On a decline, meaningful buying interest is likely near 1.1850. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1830 or to open long positions from 1.1800.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should capture the nearest resistance at 1.3660. Only that will allow them to target 1.3705, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3730. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control at 1.3610. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3580 with scope to extend to 1.3545.