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US markets were closed yesterday for a holiday.
Today, futures on the major US indices opened sharply lower, suggesting the multi-week downtrend in tech stocks may continue as Wall Street returns from its break. Treasuries ticked up slightly, and precious metals eased.
Futures on the S&P 500, which has been sliding over the past two weeks, erasing much of this year's gains, are down about 0.5% at the open. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures have fallen by roughly 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is printing a third straight weekly loss, leaving it down roughly 2% year-to-date. Asian markets were softer, down about 0.2% on low volumes as many Chinese, Hong Kong, and regional exchanges remain closed for Lunar New Year holidays.
Against the softer risk tone, the 10-year US Treasury yield eased about two basis points to 4.03%. Oil prices largely held gains as Iranian naval exercises near a key shipping lane raised geopolitical risk ahead of talks with the United States. Precious metals retreated amid the risk-off move.
Geopolitics is back in focus. Tensions in the Middle East are forcing traders to reassess central bank paths worldwide. Recently, US President Trump threatened action against Iran unless it agreed to a deal to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief — comments that feed through to risk sentiment.
Fed speakers are also on the calendar. Today, Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak and is expected to review the latest labor market data and discuss the implications of artificial intelligence. Later, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will also deliver a speech.
The labor market remains one of the clearest readouts on US economic health, showing resilience at the start of the year while still posing upside risks to inflation. Barr is expected to assess recent prints. His take on AI and employment, unemployment, and wages data will be watched closely.
In the commodity market, precious metals slipped. Spot gold approached the $4,900/oz area, silver dropped by about 3.1%, and platinum fell nearly 2%. Bitcoin eased and traded around $68,200.
As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, today, buyers' main task is to reclaim the resistance level of $6,819. A break and consolidation above that level would help the index gain upside momentum and open the way toward $6,837. Holding control above $6,854 would further strengthen the bullish case. In case of a downside move, if risk appetite erodes, buyers should defend near $6,801. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,784 and open the path to $6,769.
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