17.02.202618:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, AUD/USD fluctuated around 0.7040, down 0.50% for the session, as the Australian dollar lost support following the release of the minutes from the RBA's February meeting. The document highlights that board members considered a rate hike justified to prevent inflation from remaining elevated for an extended period. They also concluded that without preemptive measures, price pressures would likely stay high for a prolonged time.

However, the meeting minutes did not outline a specific path for future interest rate changes, underscoring that the bank's decisions will depend on incoming economic data. This uncertainty is limiting capital inflows into the Australian dollar, prompting investors to weigh the risks of further monetary tightening.

For better trading opportunities, market participants should focus on Australia's upcoming employment data, scheduled for release later this week. According to BBH analysts, labor market conditions will be decisive for interest rate expectations. Elias Haddad, Head of Markets Strategy at BBH, noted that the RBA has resumed its tightening cycle and signaled the possibility of additional rate hikes amid resilient private demand and a tight labor market. Strong job creation would reinforce expectations of further rate increases this year, potentially supporting the Australian dollar, while weaker data would put pressure on the currency.

On the other side of the pair, the U.S. dollar is showing subdued performance amid low trading volumes following the U.S. holiday. Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the preliminary fourth-quarter GDP data. These releases should clarify the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance, including the timing and scale of potential rate cuts.

From a technical perspective, if the pair fails to hold above the 14-day EMA, the next support will be the psychological 0.7000 level, near which the 20-day SMA is located. A break below it would weaken the bullish momentum. If prices manage to rise above 0.7075, the path toward the psychological 0.7100 level would open. As daily chart oscillators remain in positive territory, bulls currently retain the advantage.

The table below shows the Australian dollar's percentage change against major currencies for the day. The Australian dollar has shown the strongest resilience against the British pound.