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Bitcoin has collapsed by more than 50% since October last year and shows little intention to recover. A flat market has formed on the 4-hour timeframe at minimal levels. We believe the correction may take quite a long time and be complicated, but the downtrend will persist. Thus, we expect Bitcoin's decline to resume with a target of $57,500 and below.
Meanwhile, an unprecedented event occurred that best illustrates the essence of the crypto industry. Not long ago, Bloomberg's chief analyst Mike McGlone predicted a possible slump of Bitcoin to $10,000. As it turned out, Mr. McGlone came under heavy criticism after these unflattering remarks about the "digital gold." Other analysts and investors immediately accused McGlone of excessive pessimism and warned that his words could negatively affect actual capital flows. "Experts" said that horrifying Bitcoin forecasts could trigger a new wave of sell-offs in the market. What follows from this? You can't give negative forecasts about Bitcoin, especially if you are a well-known person in the crypto community.
That's all you need to know about forecasts. Predicting Bitcoin's fall is off-limits because it might actually fall, which would be bad for many banks, funds, investors, and crypto firms. Therefore, anyone who makes such forecasts is subject to harsh criticism. McGlone has already revised his forecast to $28,000, but other experts quickly said that even that scenario is unlikely. Bloomberg analysts have previously said that Bitcoin is a high-risk asset that is currently very vulnerable to a "buy the dip" strategy.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We still predict a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. But even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. Among POI selling areas on the daily timeframe, pay attention to the latest bearish FVG, which is still far above Bitcoin's current price. On the 4?hour timeframe, there are three unfilled bearish FVGs, but these patterns belong to the previous move and are positioned well above the current price. They are unlikely to trigger a resumption of the uptrend.
On the daily timeframe, a downward trend is still going on. The key sell pattern remains a bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. As we warned, the move triggered by this signal can be strong and prolonged. After its formation, Ethereum has already fallen by about 55%, or roughly $2,500. In the medium term, we expect bearish patterns on the daily timeframe to play out and the downtrend to resume. Ethereum's targets extend down to $1,400. Ethereum, like Bitcoin, has got stuck in a range-bound market. So, if trading in current conditions, it makes sense to trade only on oscillations from the borders of the sideways channel on the 4?hour timeframe.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). Price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one particular direction in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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