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The price test at 1.1794 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to turn downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 1.1776.
The positive report on jobless claims in the United States observed the day before, highlighting the resilience of the American labor market, had a noticeable impact on the US dollar. The decline in new unemployment claims indicates the continued strength of the American economy, boosting confidence in the dollar as a safe asset, especially as other economic centers face challenges.
Today, investors will need to analyze a significant volume of macroeconomic data. Special attention will be focused on France and Germany, where GDP data will be released. The dynamics of this key indicator reflect the overall economic activity of these countries and may signal acceleration or deceleration in growth. In addition to GDP, the publication of the consumer price index in Germany is also expected. Given Germany's significance for the region, these figures will directly impact not only the euro's exchange rate but also the overall economic situation in the Eurozone.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementations of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro can be considered when the price reaches around 1.1817 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1835. At point 1.1835, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth of the euro today can only be anticipated after favorable data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1806 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One could expect a rise to the opposing levels of 1.1817 and 1.1835.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1806 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1785, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1817 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One could expect a decline to the opposing levels of 1.1806 and 1.1785.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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