05.03.202608:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Stock market on March 5: S&P 500 and NASDAQ catch their breath and recover

Stock indices closed notably higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.78%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.29%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49%.

The global risk rebound extended into Asia. South Korea recovered from its largest one-day drop on record as markets began to calm. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose by about 0.4% as Asian equities posted their first gains since the outbreak of the Iran war over the weekend. South Korea's Kospi jumped by roughly 11%, bouncing back after a 12% plunge in the prior session. The initial risk-on tone was supported by a Wall Street rally after economic data eased US inflation concerns.

That said, the advance looks tentative: futures on US and European equity indices are already a bit softer, and the dollar has strengthened again, reaffirming its safe-haven role.

While sentiment on equities improved, oil continued its steady ascent. The move reflects persistent concerns about supply stability amid the geopolitical shock. Investors worried about potential disruptions are pricing a risk premium into oil, pushing prices higher.

Following US and Israeli strikes over the weekend, flows of crude and fuel out of the Persian Gulf have all but stopped, prompting refineries from Japan to Indonesia and India to cut runs and pause exports. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump voiced confidence in the military campaign against Iran, though the timeline for operations remains unclear.

Meanwhile, gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, also rallied further. The climb in precious metals mirrors the oil surge, driven by ongoing fears that the conflict could drag on. Investors are seeking shelter in bullion to limit losses and preserve capital amid uncertainty.

Unlike commodities and safe havens, US Treasuries weakened. The 10-year yield rose by three basis points to 4.13%, signaling weaker demand for these debt instruments. That move may reflect shifting expectations for Fed policy or a rotation of capital into riskier, potentially higher-return assets such as commodities.

The recovery reflects a repricing of the potential economic impact of the war, as investors weigh whether the conflict will meaningfully slow global growth or instead stoke persistent inflation via higher energy costs. For the rally to stick, investors will likely need clearer answers on the conflict's duration and how much it will feed inflation.

As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $6,854. This would help the index gain renewed upside momentum and could open the way to $6,871. Gaining control of the $6,882 mark would further strengthen the bullish case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,837. A break below that level would quickly bring the trading instrument back down to $6,819 and could open the path to $6,801.