05.03.202614:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 5th (US Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.19 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair did not develop a significant upward move.

Attention should now shift to key economic indicators such as weekly initial jobless claims in the United States, as well as changes in unit labor costs and labor productivity in the US non-farm sector.

A significant increase or decrease in jobless claims may serve as an early signal for adjusting economic forecasts and taking appropriate actions by both regulators and the business community.

An increase in labor costs in the non-farm sector that is not supported by a corresponding rise in productivity may lead to lower corporate profitability, higher prices for goods and services, and, consequently, stronger inflationary pressure. Conversely, if productivity grows faster than labor costs, it indicates improved efficiency, the introduction of innovations, and ultimately stronger competitiveness of the national economy.

Strong data, especially a decline in jobless claims, will likely be interpreted as a signal to buy the US dollar and sell the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry level around 157.45 (green line on the chart), with a target of 157.83 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.83, I plan to close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move. A rise in the pair today may occur after strong economic data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.16 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. In this case, a rise toward 157.45 and 157.83 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 157.16 level is broken (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.67, where I plan to close short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. Pressure on the pair may return if economic reports come out weak.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.45 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. In this case, a decline toward 157.16 and 156.67 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – expected level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – expected level where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations.

If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.