09.03.202600:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: American Dollar. Weekly Preview

Next week promises to be just as important and interesting as the previous one. Just a few hours ago, it became known that Donald Trump ordered the start of a ground military operation in Iran. At this point, nothing is known about the landing of troops on Iranian territory, but it is likely that there will be a ground operation aimed at destroying all uranium stockpiles. In my opinion, this is a serious deterioration of the situation in the Middle East, as a large-scale confrontation will now begin on the ground, not just in the air.

Over the past week, Iran has demonstrated that it possesses a sufficient number of missiles to strike at all U.S. allies in the region. Let me remind you that Iran has more than 80 million people, and its territory is mostly mountainous. Frankly, it's hard to imagine what size army would need to land on Iran's shores for Trump's operation to be successful. The markets may be overwhelmed by a new wave of shock on Monday.

If a ground operation begins tonight or tomorrow, all economic data will once again take a back seat. Even the most important reports on inflation or durable goods orders in the U.S. may be ignored. However, next week may still start with a decline in the dollar, as Friday's U.S. labor market and unemployment data once again disappointed. Reports showed a continued "cooling" state, and the Fed's stimulus measures have not yet had the necessary effect.

Based on all of the above, as long as the situation in the Middle East does not worsen significantly, both instruments have the potential for an increase. If the news background changes during the next week, we could still see the formation of a new upward wave structure, as the wave analysis currently suggests.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend section. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the global wave 5, so I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to identify areas and levels for new purchases, with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to the 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form than it currently has. I believe the corrective wave structure will complete soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can now advise seeking opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my view, under Donald Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward trend does not appear to be over.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% certainty about the direction of prices. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.