09.03.202614:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Ethereum shorts surge

While the cryptocurrency market is coping with current global developments well, the short position skew in Ethereum has reached unprecedented levels, reflecting pronounced trader pessimism.

According to Coinglass data, the number of open short positions on ETH currently exceeds long positions by more than 12-to-1. That ratio is among the most extreme on record and signals deep distrust in the asset's near-term upside.

This sentiment imbalance stems from a combination of factors, including a recent Ethereum network upgrade that failed to deliver the expected tokenomic improvements. Lower fee revenues, rising spam transactions, and, consequently, reduced network efficiency have created fertile ground for bearish positioning. Concerns have been amplified by reports of ETH sales by prominent figures such as Vitalik Buterin, which market participants interpret as a negative signal for prospects.

Recently it became known that Culper Research, a fund specializing in short ideas, has taken significant short positions in both ETH itself and shares of related company BitMine. Such concentrated bets on a decline could exert substantial downward pressure on Ethereum's price, exacerbating the bear trend. If the negative scenario materializes, BitMine—whose fortunes are closely tied to crypto market dynamics — risks suffering heavy losses. The extreme short-to-long ratio for ETH underlines current market nervousness and the token's vulnerability to further declines.

However, as history has often shown, markets frequently move contrary to the positions and expectations of large players; this is not a call to sell ETH but merely information to consider. Should Ether resume an upward path, many of these short positions could be closed rapidly, which would only accelerate ETH's rebound.

Trading recommendations:

Bitcoin: Buyers are currently targeting a return to $69,300, which would open a direct path to $71,300 and then to $73,000. The extended target is the peak near $74,600. A break above that level would indicate attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $66,700. A decline below that area could quickly push BTC toward $64,900, with a further downside target near $62,600.

Ethereum: Clear consolidation above $2,007 would open a direct route to $2,078. The extended target is the peak near $2,169. Breaching that level would strengthen bullish sentiment and renew buyer interest. If ETH falls, buyers are anticipated at $1,915. A move below that zone could rapidly send ETH down to about $1,845, with a farther downside target near $1,783.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.