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Throughout Monday, the GBP/USD pair endured many challenging moments. As a reminder, on Friday, the British pound responded somewhat logically to the absolutely disastrous U.S. labor market and unemployment data. However, the new week began with another shock, leading to a 130-pip drop within a few hours. Throughout the day, the British pound was not idle and actively fought for its future. By the end of the day, it had recovered all losses incurred overnight, and the pair was once again near the Senkou Span B line. Thus, Tuesday will begin with the same dilemma as Monday: will the British pound be able to break through the Senkou Span B line and form at least a semblance of an upward trend?
It is important to note that all the recent upward trends have been squashed by the dollar from the very start. Each time the market was poised to start buying, either UK data was dismal or geopolitical issues pulled the pair downward. Interestingly, recent American data have hardly contributed to the rise of the American currency. In recent days, we have been observing a very nervous flat movement.
On the 5-minute timeframe, over the past day, more than 10 trading signals were generated. Interestingly, most of them cannot be considered false. The price almost always reached the nearest target, but the targets were set quite close to each other. As a result, traders had to open positions every hour or so, satisfied with small profits from each trade. However, this is better than incurring losses, and the nature of the movements varies.
The latest COT report is dated March 3. The COT data for the British pound shows that, in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are often close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, and non-commercial traders remain dominant with... sales. Recently, speculators have actively increased long positions but have not managed to gain a zone of superiority.
The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue, in one form or another, for a long time, and the Fed will inevitably lower rates over the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will fall one way or another. According to the latest COT report (dated March 3) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 7,700 BUY contracts and opened 7,900 SELL contracts. The net position for non-commercial traders decreased by another 15,600 contracts over the week.
In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be noted that there is one reason: Trump's policies. Once this reason is neutralized, the dollar may rise. But when this will happen, no one knows.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have already been forming an upward trend, but geopolitics has pulled the British pound down. Despite the strong decline of the pair in February-March, we still view it as a correction. The daily timeframe confidently signals the preservation of the upward trend. Unfortunately, geopolitics can be very unpredictable and overshadow all other factors, as we are currently witnessing.
For March 10, we identify the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3671-1.3681, and 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3412) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3332) may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to breakeven when the price has moved in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Tuesday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK and the U.S. Thus, geopolitical factors will again take precedence. If there are no important messages from Iran or related to the Iranian war, the pair may continue to recover. However, the British pound must overcome the Senkou Span B line.
Today, traders can open new short positions targeting 1.3341 and 1.3307 if the pair rebounds from the Senkou Span B line. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the 1.1615-1.1625 area, with targets at 1.1657-1.1666 and the Senkou Span B line.
Price levels of support and resistance – thick red lines near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are considered strong lines.
Extremum levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
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