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Donald Trump stated yesterday that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing its end. As always, reporters did not receive any details. Consequently, no specifics emerged in the media. The American president said he has a plan for everything, so there is no need to worry, and that the American people will be satisfied. Whether the American public will actually be satisfied is a contentious issue, but indeed, the conflict may be coming to a close in the foreseeable future. However, it remains extremely difficult to understand how exactly it will conclude.
The first and most basic scenario is that the U.S. and its allies will simply stop shelling Iran, and Iran will reciprocally cease attacks against the Gulf countries and all U.S. military bases within reach. In this case, no official truce will be declared, but the conflict will be exhausted. The issue of the Strait of Hormuz blockade would remain, but I see no problems here. If missile strikes cease, Washington and Tehran could quickly negotiate the reopening of the strait. Moreover, Trump has stated that all objectives in Iran have been achieved. If all objectives have been reached, then why continue the war?
The second, more complicated scenario would involve peace negotiations, which, as we know, can last for months or even years. Trump may demand not only the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz but also the signing of a nuclear agreement, although he himself has stated that Iran's nuclear capacity has been destroyed by 90%. However, this is Trump, and no one can predict what course of action he will take. Negotiating with Iran was impossible even in the absence of war. Thus, now, when Iran is injured and bleeding, negotiations are fundamentally impossible. The best scenario would be to simply cease hostilities and negotiate concerning the most pressing issues for the world.
Unfortunately, Iran is now so enraged that it is not ready to consider unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, for his part, threatens to strike Iran with a force 20 times greater than all previous attacks if Tehran continues to block oil and gas supplies to global markets. Hence, it is certainly premature to talk about the end of the conflict. However, the world is in such a complicated position that any positive news is already a glimmer of hope for improvement. Without optimism in our times, it is quite difficult to live.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to build an upward trend. Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend section may extend up to the 25th figure. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect price increases in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e could be completed at any moment, as it has already taken a convincing form. I believe it is now prudent to look for areas and levels for new purchases with targets positioned around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
The wave pattern for the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form than it currently has. I believe that the formation of the corrective wave structure may soon be complete (or may have already been completed), after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I can advise looking for opportunities for new purchases with targets positioned above the 39 figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50, and the upward trend does not appear to be over.
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