12.03.202606:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on March 12? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, and among them, none are significant. In recent weeks, the market has largely ignored macroeconomic data that does not support the dollar. By the way, there is quite a bit of this kind of information. Recall that key reports on GDP, the labor market, and unemployment were disappointing, significantly raising the likelihood of new monetary easing by the Fed. At the beginning of 2026, it became clear that January's Non-Farm Payroll figure was an anomaly, and the labor market shows no signs of recovery. Today, the U.S. will release data on the construction and real estate sector, as well as unemployment claims. We believe there will be no reaction to these data. In the European Union and the UK, the event calendars are empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The only significant event on Thursday is Andrew Bailey's speech as Chair of the Bank of England. Bailey speaks very rarely; therefore, this event should be treated with attention. However, the market's focus remains on the Middle East and Donald Trump, rather than on central banks. In our opinion, the dollar can only be supported by geopolitics, and that is precisely what is happening now. Without new, more severe escalations in the war in the Middle East, the dollar will find it difficult to demonstrate growth, but there are also no reasons for it to decline without de-escalation.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, we may observe absolutely any movements in the market, as the vector of events in the Middle East can shift in any direction. The euro can be traded today from the 1.1527-1.1531 area, while the British pound can be traded from the 1.3319-1.3331 area. We still see no grounds for strong, sustained growth in the American currency, but the war in the Middle East may still provide support for the dollar multiple times.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
4. Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.