13.03.202612:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold has lost most of its moderate intraday gains and has come under selling pressure. The asset is being pressured by continuous buying of the U.S. dollar, fueled by the realization that the surge in energy prices caused by the war with Iran could accelerate inflation again, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay monetary policy easing. This is the main factor preventing the precious metal from rising.

Geopolitical risks remain high amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, which could limit the drop in gold prices as a safe-haven asset. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public address demanded the immediate closure of all American military bases in the region under the threat of attacks. He emphasized that strikes on them would continue despite Iran's desire for good-neighborly relations.

Meanwhile, the U.S. president Donald Trump stated that neutralizing the "empire of evil" in Iran is a higher priority for him than oil prices. Since the start of the U.S.–Israeli operation against Iran, oil prices have been steadily rising. Blockages in the Strait of Hormuz are fueling fears of supply disruptions, strengthening expectations of an inflation surge and forcing investors to reduce forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.

This supports yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, which benefits dollar bulls and restrains the growth of precious metal prices ahead of the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

The Federal Reserve's key inflation indicator will significantly affect expectations for monetary policy amid military pressure on consumer prices, stimulating demand for the dollar and increasing volatility in the XAU/USD pair.

The focus remains on geopolitical developments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD risks closing its second consecutive week with losses. Mixed fundamental factors require caution before opening aggressive directional positions.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the oversold zone, which suggests caution for sellers when opening new positions, as a pullback or consolidation may occur. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for gold remains downward.