18.03.202610:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is not yet showing a confident recovery after the recent decline recorded in the 1.1415–1.1410 level—the lowest levels seen in August and July 2025. Quotes are fluctuating within a narrow range, holding slightly below the 9-day EMA and remaining virtually unchanged on the day. Market participants appear to prefer staying on the sidelines ahead of a series of key central bank decisions. Today, the US Federal Reserve will present the results of its two-day meeting, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank will release updated monetary policy data.

Investors are focused on possible comments regarding the future direction of interest rates, especially amid ongoing risks to economic growth due to rising energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions, as well as the potential strengthening of inflationary pressures.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains below the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA), located near 1.1547, which limits the potential for a sustained recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in positive territory, closer to neutral levels, indicating moderate weakness without a strong momentum. The MACD indicator has dipped slightly below the signal line, confirming a weakening trend. A move above the 200-hour SMA would allow the pair to reach the round level of 1.1600, with potential for further recovery. However, a drop below the 100-hour SMA would return intraday control of the market to the bears.