30.03.202612:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast. Weak Bullish Momentum in the Gold Market

Today, at the beginning of the new week, gold (XAU/USD) continues to rise for the second consecutive day, recovering from an intraday decline to the $4,420 level and reaching a new high near $4,550 during the morning European trading session. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the performance of the U.S. currency against a basket of major peers, fell slightly short of a monthly high, providing additional support to the precious metal. Nevertheless, expectations of further tightening of monetary policy globally are limiting appetite for gold. Investors increasingly believe that major central banks will maintain a hawkish stance, as rising energy prices driven by military actions continue to heighten inflation risks.

Geopolitical tensions have increased significantly following reports that the United States is considering a ground operation in Iran and expanding the conflict with Tehran-backed Houthi forces from Yemen. Over the past 24 hours, this group has carried out a series of missile and drone attacks on Israel, warning of further strikes in the coming days. The escalation effectively opens a new front and increases geopolitical and economic uncertainty, raising the likelihood of further disruptions to international trade flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. An additional risk factor is the partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which supports elevated oil prices and could once again fuel inflation. Against this backdrop, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its U.S. inflation forecast upward to 4.2%, significantly above its previous estimate and the Federal Reserve's 2.7% target. In addition, the OECD indicated in its baseline scenario assumes that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at least until 2027. Meanwhile, the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a probability of over 50% of a rate hike as early as 2026. This combination of factors generally supports the U.S. dollar and encourages investors to remain cautious when opening long positions in gold.

From a technical perspective, the market is showing signs of consolidation: the technical pattern indicates the need for confirmation of sustained buying momentum before confidence can be placed in the formation of a local bottom near the 200-day SMA, or the lowest levels since November 2025 recorded earlier this month.

Oscillators are negative, confirming the dominance of bears in the market. For further growth, bulls need to break above the 100-day SMA.