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03.04.202611:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Outlook for WTI. Oil price rallies due to concerns about logistic disruptions

Relevance up to 05:00 2026-04-04 UTC--4
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Exchange Rates 03.04.2026 analysis

Donald Trump warned of an escalation of military action against Iran, without providing clarity on the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian representative Garibabadi said Tehran will soon begin talks with Oman.

Today, on Friday, during the European session the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $105.00 per barrel. Over the past week, WTI prices have gained more than 10%, driven by growing concerns about disruptions to crude supplies after renewed threats against Iran by US President Donald Trump.

Trump said he intends to step up military action against Tehran in the next two to three weeks, again issuing hardline statements, but did not specify concrete measures to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that US attacks on civilian infrastructure will not force Iran to change its position, describing them as evidence of the opposing side's internal instability and moral crisis.

According to regional reports, Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol governing oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but initial optimism about these talks quickly faded. Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Garibabadi told Sputnik that the draft agreement is in its final stage and Tehran intends to soon begin official consultations with Oman on the creation of a joint coordination mechanism.

At the same time, the United Kingdom has initiated virtual talks with nearly 40 countries to discuss possible ways to resume navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The US is not taking part in these discussions — President Trump previously said that ensuring the route's functioning is not America's responsibility, and urged European allies to "deal with their own oil."

From a technical standpoint, oil is trading above all moving averages, the MACD histogram has flattened, indicating a weakening of momentum. Nevertheless, oscillators are in positive territory and far from overbought levels, confirming a positive outlook.

Exchange Rates 03.04.2026 analysis

Irina Yanina
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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