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Bitcoin surged sharply after news that the U.S. is ready to end the war with Iran. Bitcoin briefly reached $72,600, while Ethereum climbed to $2,270.
The fact that the U.S. is willing to abandon attacks on Iran and its energy infrastructure, and to take steps toward an agreement on Tehran's terms, led to a sharp increase in risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. Many market participants expected a new escalation of the conflict, but it seems Trump is under considerable pressure to continue this pointless war without any clear goals.
This unexpected shift in Washington's rhetoric not only calmed the markets but also stimulated capital inflows into more volatile assets. The cryptocurrency market, known for its sensitivity to geopolitical events and risk appetite, responded with an immediate rise. Traders who were previously fearful of the consequences of a new wave of conflict now see opportunities for recovery and growth.
Abandoning direct confrontation may signal a shift in U.S. foreign policy, moving the focus from forceful solutions to diplomacy. This, in turn, reduces uncertainty, which is the primary enemy of financial markets. A ceasefire, even a temporary one, opens the way for stabilizing energy prices and creates favorable conditions for an overall improving investment climate.
This decision is influenced not only by external pressure but also by internal economic considerations. A prolonged and costly war with no clear goals could undermine the U.S. economy, and thus the desire for de-escalation and reaching a compromise seems to be a logical step under current conditions. The rise in cryptocurrencies in this context appears to signal a return of investor risk appetite.
Regarding intraday strategies for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act by relying on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the long-term bullish market that remains intact.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $72,000, with a target of $73,200. At $73,200, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $71,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $72,000 and $73,200.
Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $71,400 with a target for the drop to $70,600. At $70,600, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $72,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $71,400 and $70,600.
Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,253, with a target of $2,312. At $2,312, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,224 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,253 and $2,312.
Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,224 with a target for the drop to $2,181. At $2,181, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $2,253 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,224 and $2,181.
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